Doom-and-gloomers say we’re near tapped-out of oil. Rubbish.

by Bruce Bartlett

Predictably, the recent rise in oil prices has drawn the usual doom-and-gloomers -- people who have been consistently wrong on oil for 30 years. Once again they’re out saying that higher prices prove we’re running out of oil and that severe curbs on gasoline consumption must be imposed to preserve what little is left for future generations.
They need not worry. There is growing evidence that oil is far more plentiful than we have been led to believe.

The prevailing theory on the origin of oil is the dead-dinosaur hypothesis, which dates back to the 18th century. Its originator was a Russian scientist named Mikhail Lomonosov, who put it this way in a 1757 paper: "Rock oil (petroleum) originates as tiny bodies of animals buried in the sediments which, under the influence of increased temperature and pressure acting during an unimaginably long period of time, transforms into rock oil."
However, in the 1950s, Russian and Ukrainian scientists developed a new theory about petroleum’s origins called the abiotic or abiogenic theory. According to this view, oil is fundamentally inorganic and has no relationship to dead plant or animal life. Rather, oil originates deep in the Earth’s crust from inorganic material that is part of the planet’s origin.

In the words of geologist Vladimir Porfir’yev, "The overwhelming preponderance of geological evidence compels the conclusion that crude oil and natural gas have no intrinsic connection with biological matter originating near the surface of the Earth. They are primordial materials which have erupted from great depths."
For more than 50 years, Russian and Ukrainian scientists have successfully used the abiotic theory to find oil and natural gas. For example, the Dnieper-Donets Basin has yielded a significant amount of oil and natural gas even though it is an area that conventional biological theories reject as unpromising. A recent technical paper found that the results "confirm the scientific conclusions that the oil and natural gas found in… the Dnieper-Donets Basin are of deep, and abiotic, origin."

As Russia has opened up since the fall of the Soviet Union, and because it has become a large and growing factor in the international oil market, American scientists are becoming increasingly knowledgeable about and interested in the abiotic theory of petroleum. Recently, the National Academy of Sciences published a paper on the topic. The Gas Research Institute has financed exploration based on abiotic theories, with encouraging results. And the American Association of Petroleum Geologists has taken an interest in the subject as well.
The leading supporter of the abiotic theory in the US is Prof. Thomas Gold of Cornell. His 1999 book, The Deep Hot Biosphere (Springer-Verlag), is a thorough discussion of the issues. It is based in part on research financed by the US Geological Survey. Among prominent scientists whose work supports the abiotic theory are Jean Whelan of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Mahlon Kennicutt of Texas A&M University, and J.F Kenny of the Gas Resources Corporation.

Interestingly, economic research also implicitly supports abiotic theory. A leading researcher in this regard is Michael C. Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research and formerly chief energy economist for DRI-WEFA.
In a new paper, Lynch debunks a common theory called the Hubbert curve (also debunked recently by Victor Canto on NRO), which postulates that the yield of oil fields is inherently limited. The problem, as Lynch points out, is that actual experience in many instances contradicts the Hubbert theory. Its primary flaw is that it views geology as the sole factor in oil discovery, recovery, and depletion. In fact, oil prices, government policy, and technology play critical roles. But the evidence he presents on oil fields that yielded far more than the Hubbert curve predicts is consistent with the abiotic theory, which says that oil fields can be refilled from sources well below those in which production now takes place.

Finally, it is important to remember that improving technology improves the oil situation regardless of the theory of its origins. A study last year by Cambridge Energy Research Associates found that five emerging technologies -- remote sensing, visualization, intelligent drilling and completions, automation, and data integration -- will greatly improve the ability of energy companies to increase their drilling success rate, better manage reserves, and operate more efficiently.
William Severns, the study’s leader, explained, "With these capabilities, companies may be able to increase the amount of oil and natural gas recovered in a given field by 2 % to 7 %, reduce lifting costs by 10 % to 25 %, and increase production rates by 2 % to 4 %."

Of course, higher prices also make known deposits of oil that were previously too costly to exploit viable economically. Higher prices also reduce demand.
Consequently, it is impossible to ever literally run out of oil. The possibility should notbe a factor in the energy debate.

Bruce Bartlett is senior fellow for the National Centre for Policy Analysis.