Breaking up Iraq

When the American forces entered Iraq more than two years ago to overthrow Saddam Hussein's regime, the common impression then was that the United States wanted to control the second biggest oil reserve in the world.
Today, after two and a half years of the entry of the American army, the oil industry in Iraq could not exceed 1.6 mm bpd in the south, while the exportation in the north is completely halted.

Within the same context, in anticipation for the approval of the Iraqi constitution, information was published on agreements that were signed during the past years between the Kurdish leadership and a number of foreign companies to start exploration, digging and production operations, upon the method of partnership, without consultation with Baghdad.
This shows that the Kurdish leadership has actually imposed its control over administering the oil resources in the north of Iraq, in the regions that are under the control of the "Kurdistani National Union" and the "Kurdistani Democratic Party" since the beginning of the 90s. This has continued after the regime of the American ruler of Iraq Paul Bremer and after the creation of Iyad Allawi's government.

There is an American memorandum signed on September 17, 1998, between the "Kurdistani National Union" and the "Kurdistani Democratic Party" on the one hand, and the American department of state on the other hand. It included that the province is in charge of the rights of using the oil and gas in the lands included in the agreement, which lasts for 40 years.
Such agreements before drafting the constitution foretell a chaos in the Iraqi oil resources, as if this was the American agenda, then how can a country like Iraq, which has the second biggest oil reserve in the world, hand its oil sector to partnerships with small unknown companies. In addition, dividing the administration of oil between Baghdad and the regions and leaving the details until later is a very negative issue.

The regions in the Arab countries and provinces are not qualified for negotiating global companies. The negotiations in Iraq are conducted between tribal leaders and global companies are a certain route towards chaos and the division of the oil sector. If this would be the strategy that would be adopted by the American administration for the Iraqi oil sector, then the Iraqi oil industry can never be organized so that the Iraqi people benefit from their natural resources.
Within the same context, the American administration mistakenly concentrates on specified dates for the elections and the constitution. Then any constitution which would be expected to succeed should be the result of political negotiations for arranging the internal home. It can never be the other way through drafting the constitution and then arranging the home after one party beats the other in the drafting process.

The marginalisation of the Sunnis and the secular powers, which represent more than 30 % of the nation, might be a fatal mistake. Despite the fact that the constitution draft has not been announced, the Shiite sect has obtained everything it desires, religiously speaking, through this constitution.
Then, how would the future Iraq be like under the domination of one sect over the other and if the administration of oil was granted to the regions? These are means for the division and dispersion of Iraq with the possibility of a chaos and civil war that no one would wish for an old nation and a country that is rich in resources and people.

The American administration is suffering from heavy losses of its young soldiers and is also failing in planning for a better future for Iraq. Iraq is not Iran and drafting an Iraqi constitution is similar to Iranian institutions, where a great portion of Iraqi people are marginalized.
This is not promising for the future of the country and the region, unless the various forces in Iraq are all put into consideration.