Demand for Gulf oil expected to increase

The Gulf with reserves of some 60 % of the world crude oil reserves will continue to be the most important part for consuming countries especially the US and industrialised countries, experts told a conference. The 21st century will witness growing demand on Gulf oil as the international economy recovers in developed countries, and the decline in oil production in the US Gulf oil will emerge the main source to fulfil the world needs, Dr. Eid bin Masoud Al Jahni, chairman of Arab Gulf Centre for Energy and Strategic Studies told the conference on ?Oil and Gas in World Politics?.
"Oil exports of the Gulf form about 40 % of the world oil imports. The US imports about 59.1 % of its oil needs from the Gulf. It is expected that the world, including China, will increase their dependence on Gulf oil until 2008," he said.

OPEC oil reserves form three-fourths of the world oil reserves while GCC oil reserves form half of the OPEC oil reserves. Studies expect an increase in world oil consumption and this will cause a deficit in the world oil demand reaching 42 mm bpd in 2010. This deficit will continue in 2015 reaching 57 mm bpd. "The export quota of GCC countries will rise. Industrial countries will continue to depend on GCC countries to secure 72 % of their oil imports in 2010 and 76 % in 2020."
Al Jahni pointed out that OPEC oil will remain in the first place for the world energy consumption between 1998-2020. "We should clarify that Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran and Venezuela will secure about 42 % of the world demand of oil in 2020. About 88 % of OPEC production lies in the Gulf."

Former Iraqi Oil Minister, Esam Al Jalabi, reiterated that the Gulf will remain the most strategic region in the world. In 2020, the demand for oil will rise from 76 mm bpd to 115-120 mm bpd and the quota of OPEC will form half of this quantity. Demand will rise, he said, with slight increase of about 1 % with consumption continuing to rise in India and China and the GCC countries will remain the main oil suppliers to them.
In 2020, it is expected that the productivity of the GCC countries will increase from 43 mm bpd to 120 mm bpd. Dr. Atef Mohammed Al Jemali, director of international relations, Kuwait Oil, cited statistics as Arab oil reserves estimated to be 1,000 bn barrels.
"The confirmed Arab oil reserves are estimated to be 651 bn barrels forming about 61 % of the world oil reserves. There are about 570 bn barrels in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE and Iraq which form some 87.5 % of the confirmed Arab reserves."
A new study released by the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries indicates that estimation of non-discovered oil resources in Arab oil countries equals 150 bn barrels, he said.