Brazil’s installed capacity expected to rise 8.7 GW through end-2010
Brazil could add 8.73 GW of installed capacity through end-2010 as new projects start commercial operations,
according to Mauricio Tolmasquim, president of federal energy research company EPE.
Brazil's current installed capacity stands at roughly 96 GW.
According to EPE projections, 2.97 GW could come online in 2008, followed by 2.70 GW in 2009 and 3.07 GW in 2010, he
said during the 8th power sector meeting in Sao Paulo. The amount of power coming online in 2010 could grow in light
of the July 10 power auction the government is preparing.
"These are all projects that already have power sale contracts we signed at past government power auctions,"
Tolmasquim said. "Our projection is conservative because we account only for turbines that will effectively start
up." The projections also include the 3.30GW of renewable power projects under the government's renewable incentive
program Proinfa.
EPE has concluded the 2007-16 power expansion plan that includes this schedule and has revised projections for demand
and supply, Tolmasquim said.
"The plan is ready and we are waiting for the ministry to approve it," he added. Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula
da Silva must still formally name a new mines and energy minister to replace Silas Rondeau, who resigned amid
corruption allegations.
According to the new plan, Brazil's GDP is projected to grow in the first five years at an average rate of 4.8 % a
year, higher than the 4.5 % in the previous 2006-15 plan. Power consumption is projected to grow 5.5 % a year, up
from the 5.2 % consumption increase in the previous plan.
Tolmasquim also unveiled the country's projected power balance for the next three years, during which demand will be
slightly below supply as new power projects start operations.
In 2007, supply in the whole country is projected at 52GW of firm power, while demand is projected at 51.2 GW.
In 2008, supply and demand could be level at 53.7 GW of firm power, in 2009, supply rise to 57 GW and demand to 56.4
GW and in2010, supply increase to 59.8 GW and demand to 59 GW.
Source: www.downstreamtoday.com / www.bnamericas.com
