Bush in Nigeria

by Blessyn Okpowo

Amidst mixed expectations, Air Force One, the official aircraft that carries the United States President touched down at the presidential wing of the Nnamdi Azikiwe International airport Abuja bearing Mr George Bush Jr. It is the last lap of a five nation tour that has taken Mr Bush to Senegal, Botswana, South Africa, Uganda and lastly Nigeria. President Bush immediately spent time meeting with some twelve other African Heads of State in Abuja. The jaw-jaw called the summit „a way to push the African continent up the development ladder“.
Before his departure, President Bush would have told his Nigerian counterpart some home truths about the damage that corruption is doing to the Nigeria's economy and image. On the positive side, he would also give President Obasanjo a pat on the back for helping to provide a haven for the internationally "wanted" Charles Taylor, embattled President of Liberia who has since been offered asylum by the Nigerian government. The offer of asylum to Mr Taylor has helped in no small measure towards the early resolution of the Liberian crisis.

The Bush visit is significant in several ways. For one, it is the very first time a Republican President of the United States is visiting Nigeria.
Secondly, it is the third time that President Olusegun Obasanjo is hosting an American President. In 1978, in the twilight of his military tenure, he played host to President Jimmy Carter of the Democratic party. Also in August 2000, he also hosted another Democratic president, President Bill Clinton. That was two decades after the Carter visit. Now he (Obasanjo) is hosting another, making him the only African president to have enjoyed such a privilege.

But beyond these historical significance, what exactly is Bush bringing to Nigeria? What are the gains of this visit to Nigeria? Above all, what are the gains for America such that Mr Bush was so bent on coming, for it is the Americans themselves that say there is nothing like a free lunch. President Bush had underscored the importance of this visit when during the 8-day strike, he declared that nothing minding what is happening in Nigeria, he was bent on coming.
According to him: "I obviously hope it (referring to the general strike called by the NLC to protest the fuel hike by the federal government), gets settled in a peaceful way. If I have to, I will make my own bed at the Hotel. I am looking forward to it. It's going to be a very interesting trip. So I am not changing my mind".

He claims that in coming to Nigeria (Africa), "I will be carrying a message to the African people that first, America cares about the future of Africa; it's in our national interest that Africa become a prosperous place; it's in our interest that people will continue to fight terror together; it's in our interest that when we find suffering, we deal with it"
As part of the package, the Americans have concluded plans to spend some $ 600 mm over the next five years on education, this is in addition to the almost $ 15 bn that has been set aside to fight the dreaded AIDS scourge that has continued to spread like a harmattan fire in the African continent.

However, the question still remains: Are the reasons for the Bush visit to Nigeria really truly altruistic? What lies underneath this professed love for Africa and Nigeria? Why is Bush breaking a Republican tradition to visit Africa?
It is instructive to note that Bush's choice of countries to visit are quite representative of the continent's problems and possibilities. He has suddenly turned a big spender on the African continent as well. For instance, Bush's pledge of $ 15 bn in Africa to fight the spread of HIV/AIDS, and $ 10 bn in increased foreign aid to countries which pledge to fight corruption and open their markets.
Appointing his new Global Aids Coordinator, former pharmaceuticals boss, Rany Tobias, Mr Bush said that "millions of lives depend on the success of this effort, and we are determined to succeed."

But even more dramatically is the Bush administration's obvious desire of taking the military intervention in Liberia to end the debilitating civil war and ensure that President Charles Taylor stands down. The US is also mediating a ceasefire in Sudan, and may be planning a more active role in encouraging change in Zimbabwe, where President Robert Mugabe has been accused of clinging on to power and blocking fair elections.
The impetus and intentions for President Bush's Africa trip comes from several directions.
Firstly, Mr Bush has demonstrated that US is not neglecting the welfare of the world's poor while waging the war on terrorism. Africa's economy has dramatically lagged behind the rest of the world, and the president will be emphasising the benefits of globalisation and open markets in encouraging economic development.
According to former Africa Assistant Secretary, Chester Crocker, who served Ronald Reagan, the trip will provide an "answer to those who say there is a double standard or that we don't care", and to reassure not just Africans but "our allies and third-country observers".

Secondly, Mr Bush is responding to his conservative and religious constituency in joining the global fight against HIV/AIDS. This policy, first announced in January's State of the Union address, was strongly advocated by faith-based organisations who are working in Africa.
And finally, following the war in Iraq, the US is weighing up its options in playing global policeman in Africa. In a reversal of the roles they played during the Iraq conflict, it is the US State Department that is urging military intervention in Liberia, which is engulfed in a bloody civil war, while the Defence Department is resisting a further troop commitment.

Curiously earlier, Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, told that the US had "no vital interests" in Africa. Defence officials are worried that the US already has too many commitments overseas, with 150,000 troops in Iraq and 10,000 in Afghanistan. But in a speech at a Washington think tank, US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Walter Kansteiner, said that "our children and our grandchildren are much more likely to have serious business, financial, political, commercial links to Africa" and pointed out that one-fifth of US oil imports come from Africa.
West African nations, led by Nigeria, and US allies like Britain, are urging the United States to contribute up to 2,000 troops to a task force for Liberia which would also include 3,000 African soldiers.
And his predecessor as assistant secretary in the Clinton administration, Susan Rice, said: "In Liberia, the United States is the international 911. There is nowhere else to turn... from a humanitarian and moral point of view, as well as the historical and security point of view, we ought to be engaged."

President Bush, who has called on the Liberian leader, Charles Taylor, to step down to face war crimes charges, said that the US was "exploring all the options as to how to keep the situation peaceful and stable". The UN-backed Special Court for Sierra Leone has issued an international arrest warrant against the Liberian president, accusing him of backing brutal rebels during the 10-year civil war in Sierra Leone.
The situation in Liberia is expected to dominate talks between President Bush and Nigeria's President Olusegun Obasanjo. As they talk, Bush is likely going to ask Obasanjo to, in addition to pressing him to make more progress in fighting corruption, ask for a more committed restructuring of the economy to encourage private participation while Obasanjo would argue that Nigeria should receive debt relief on loans it received from international institutions like the IMF.

In South Africa, the situation in Zimbabwe could prove a key part of talks with South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki -- although Mr Bush will probably also want to raise privately Mr Mbeki's less than enthusiastic embrace of Western help in fighting HIV/AIDS. The three smaller nations to be visited by President Bush are seen as models of the kind of African leadership the US wants to encourage.
Mr Bush has been impressed by Uganda's approach to tackling the HIV/AIDS crisis, and has already met President Museveni at the White House. Senegal is cited by Assistant Secretary Kansteiner as a model of democracy in West Africa, and relatively free of corruption.
The new plans for increased US foreign aid to Africa, the Millennium Challenge Account, call for economic and political reforms as a precondition for additional aid. Botswana is seen as an example of good environmental practice while encouraging responsible tourism.

All in all, Mr Bush's trip encompasses a broad and perhaps risky agenda, marking a new phase in the development of his foreign policy ambitions. If he succeeds, Mr Bush is likely to enhance his standing as a man of peace as well as a victor in war -- both in the eyes of the world, and perhaps more importantly, with the American public.
Though President George W. Bush is in Africa to launch HIV/AIDS, development and anti-terrorism initiatives. But his visit has also highlighted the growing importance of oil imports for the United States. The US imports two thirds of its oil needs. About 15 % of that amount comes from West Africa and that figure is projected to rise to 25 % in the next 10 years.

The oil sector in Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the fastest growing in the world. Production has taken off in the Gulf of Guinea which includes Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon, Gabon, Angola and Congo. By the end of 2003, hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude will be flowing from oil fields in Chad, through rain forests in Cameroon to tankers docked off the Atlantic coast.
An American company has secured a concession in the neighbouring Central African Republic. In the aftermath of 11 September 2001, America is seen as looking to reduce its dependence on the Middle East by looking elsewhere for energy supplies.

Despite a reputation for political and economic stability, oil flows from Africa can be reliable, especially as production often takes place off-shore.
"Usually oil production takes place in enclaves, so continues regardless of what goes on around," said Douglas Mason, Africa specialist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. "Political problems are much more localised in Africa". America may even eventually increase its military presence in the region to secure its oil supplies.
Sao Tome -- which has big oil reserves -- has invited the US Navy to build a port from which to patrol the Gulf of Guinea. But some analysts say investing in African oil reserves will not solve all America's energy problems.
"It is as well to diversify as much as possible. But no one oil source is more reliable than the other," says Robert Mabro, President of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. "There is a move to reduce reliance on the Middle East but Africa also has its problems. Look at the recent strikes in Nigeria."

Professor of Petroleum and Economics at Dundee University, Paul Stevens, describes as "mis-informed" officials in Washington who see African oil as crucially important to the US. They want to reduce America's reliance on Saudi Arabia's goodwill, he says.
"It doesn't matter where you get it from, it's how much you pay. If oil cost $ 60 a barrel in the Middle East, it's still going to cost $ 60 in Africa. Africa and Russia are not going to replace Saudi Arabia which has excess capacity which can stabilise the market."