The Great Maybe lies off British Columbia's coast

The Great Maybe lies off the coast of British Columbia. There may be $ 144-bn in offshore oil and gas near the Queen Charlotte Islands, enough to pump $ 4.5-bn a year into B.C.'s treasury. There may be enough work to restore the 15,000 jobs lost in the forest, fishing and mining sectors along the coast.
There may be enough economic fallout to restore the shipbuilding industry in Vancouver and Victoria. There may be enough black gold buried off the coast to fuel B.C.'s restoration as a "have" province, power a political force that rivals Alberta's and give Ottawa a whole new headache.
On the other hand, there may be a great environmental disaster lurking out there. Killer waves 10 storeys high may swamp an offshore rig, killing hundreds of workers and dumping crude into the pristine waters of the Queen Charlotte Basin.
An earthquake may be the catalyst for an even greater disaster, smashing the infrastructure of pipes linking the undersea wells, causing an unimaginable spill. Or maybe offshore oil and gas development will jeopardize the cruise-ship industry. Why would anyone want to take a cruise through an offshore oil field? Maybe none of this will ever happen.

Maybe the 30-year moratorium on offshore oil exploration will never be lifted, but don't count on it. The new Premier, Gordon Campbell, has already said: "If there's a huge economic benefit and no environmental risk, then why wouldn't you consider it?"
Maybe environmentalists don't agree with the Premier about "no environmental risk." But with a mandate based on 77 out of 79 seats, the new government may be less sensitive than the old to the speculative fears of the environmentalists.
Maybe the whole project will crash on the rocks of a jurisdictional dispute between the aboriginal bands in the area and the province. After all, with the exception of the Nisga'a agreement, there has been precious little progress on the resolution of native treaty rights in B.C.
Or maybe Ottawa will refuse to lift the moratorium, citing potential environmental disaster, although Environment Minister David Anderson sounds less resolute now that the technology of safety has improved, or maybe because there's a Liberal government in Victoria.
Maybe the offshore oil and gas bonanza is just a get-rich-quick fantasy. After all, people have been hunting offshore since 1913 without striking it rich. But one thing is certain.

The Great Maybe is an irresistible temptation to a province starved for some economic good news. Even the New Democrats were tempted to lift the ban, and asked the northern development commissioner to recommend the best way to set up a public discussion on lifting it. That report, which is due any day, will be delivered into the hands of a premier who's much more impatient to dig for buried treasure.
And there is no doubt that technology has improved in the past 30 years, and that the odds have increased on the size and accessibility of the deposit and the safety of the enterprise. If Newfoundland can bring Hibernia to life, maybe B.C. can make its own offshore miracle.
B.C. could secure one-quarter of its current annual revenue needs if the Great Maybe turns out to be the Real Thing. That could buy a lot of nurses and hospital beds. But it may be, after 10 years of big bad ideas such as fast ferries, B.C. has lost its ability to tell the difference between good ideas and bad. How the Campbell government handles the Great Maybe will be the first -- and maybe the most decisive -- test of its ability to lead B.C. out of its snake-bit funk.