Russia and China bound by uneasy ties

Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to Russia allowed the two powers to consolidate their relations, synchronize their worldviews and build a united front against a world dominated by the United States, the world's only superpower. This was the most significant outcome of the Chinese leader's first overseas trip since he assumed the presidency in March. But he did not succeed entirely in allaying Russian concerns over a rising China.
Still, the general strategic accord reached at the summit between him and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin is likely to enhance their ability to withstand future American pressure.

Both leaders are suspicious that US President George W. Bush, encouraged by neo-conservatives, wants to establish American global dominance under the guise of promoting security and democracy. They are afraid that in such a situation, the Americans do not see others as allies or partners, but only as followers or accomplices.
Therefore, in their joint statement, both leaderscondemned unilateralism, promoted multipolarity, called for democratisation of international relations and stressed the need to strengthen the UN framework. Regarding American concerns, such as North Korea and Iran, they agreed that there was a need to defuse the crises -- but not on US terms.

In particular, China reiterated its support for Russia's bid to join the World Trade Organization (WTO). The process is currently stalled, mainly because the United States has withdrawn its once-solid support, after Moscow's openly anti-American stance on Iraqi. "The two presidents see eye to eye on almost every aspect of international relations," said Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov.
The most tangible outcome of the Hu-Putin summit is an agreement to build a 2,400 km pipeline from Angarsk in eastern Siberia to Daqing in northeast China. The $ 2.5 bn project would enable Russia to export about 5.13 bn barrels of oil, worth some $ 150 bn, to China between 2005 and 2030. This would go a long way towards solving China's supply bottleneck in petroleum.

China, which became a net importer in 1993, imported 70 mm tons, or 33 % of its total needs, last year. By 2010, oil imports are expected to make up half of total consumption.
Currently, over half of China's imported oil comes from the Middle East. The Siberian oil will enable China to reduce its dependence on the Mideast, an area that is increasingly falling under American dominance. The project will bond the two countries and spark a quantum jump in bilateral trade, now a miserably low $ 12 bn a year. However, Hu was unable to allay Russian fears of a rising China.

The Chinese proposal to lease two Russian ports -- Posiet and Zarubino -- for 49 years was flatly rejected, according to a source. The ports are situated at the mouth of the Tumen River, where it meets the East Sea.
The proposal included plans to increase the capacity of the two ports, now totalling just 1 mm tons, by 10 to 15 times, and to build a railway link between the Chinese cityof Hunchun in Jilin province and ports 34 km away. Had the plan been accepted, it would have provided the huge Manchurian hinterland in northeast China with a route to the sea.
The Russian president was surprised to find out on a recent trip that Heihe, which he remembered as a small Chinese border village, has developed into a major city in a matter of two decades. Heihe is the northernmost city of China right on the Sino-Russian border. Putin is also worried about the long-term implications of a massive migration of Chinese into the Russian Far East. When he was in the region last year, he urged his local governments to take appropriate measures or else "Chinese will become the spoken language there."

Given such fears of a rising China, it is hardly surprising that Russia refused to lease its ports. Even the nine-year haggling over the Angarsk-Daqing pipeline showed that the Russians had great misgivings about using their oil to fuel Chinese development. The project was first conceived in 1994 and reaffirmed in a series of joint communiques between governments at the highest level in 1996, 2001 and last year.
Yet a Japanese proposal at the 11th hour -- that the oil be sold to China instead -- almost led to its collapse. Although subsequent consideration, including the need to solicit China's support for its WTO membership bid, forced the Russians to honour their original commitment, the episode showed the fragility of Sino-Russian relations. So while Hu did manage to add substance to a bilateral relationship, he failed to remove Russian uneasiness about a growing China.