India's GDP projected to grow at 7.4% in 2014-15

Feb 09, 2015 12:00 AM

India's gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow at an annual rate of 7.4 per cent during the 2014-15 fiscal ending 31 March 2015, against the growth rate of 6.9 per cent in 2013-14.

Real GDP at constant (2011-12) prices is estimated to touch a level of Rs106,57,000 crore in the year 2014-15, against the first revised estimate of GDP for the year 2013-14 of Rs99,21,000 crore,  advance estimates of national income showed.

Accordingly, per capita income is also estimated to grow 6.1 per cent in 2014-15 against the previous year`s estimate of 5.4 per cent, reaching a level of Rs74,193 in 2014-15 compared to Rs69,959 for the 2013-14 fiscal.

Gross value added (GVA) in real terms at basic prices in 2014-15 is estimated to grow at 7.5 per cent against growth of 6.6 per cent in 2013-14.

Real GVA at basic constant (2011-12) prices is anticipated to increase from Rs91,70,000 crore in 2013-14 to Rs98,58,000 crore in 2014-15.

GDP at basic prices at constant (2011-12) prices in Q3 of 2014-15 is estimated to have grown at 7.5 per cent with GVA estimated at Rs24,97,00 crore, against Rs23,24,000  crore in Q3 of 2013-14.

The higher growth is likely to be achieved with sectors like financial, real estate and professional services, trade, hotels, transport and communication and services related to broadcasting,  public administration, defence and other services, electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services growing at of over 7.0 per cent year-on-year.

The growth in sectors like agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and quarrying, construction and manufacturing is estimated to be 1.1 per cent, 2.3 per cent, 4.5 per cent and 6.8 per cent respectively.

Agriculture
Gross value addition in agriculture, which includes forestry and fishing sectors, is likely to grow at a lower rate of 1.1 per cent during 2014-15, against the previous year's growth rate of 3.7 per cent. Based on data provided by the department of agriculture and cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in 2014-15, production of foodgrains is expected to decline by 2.9 per cent compared to an increase of 3.0 per cent in the previous agriculture year.

Production of pulses and oilseeds is also expected to decline by 3.4 and 9.6 per cent respectively compared to an increase of 5.0 and 6.3 per cent, respectively, in the previous agriculture year. However, among the horticultural crops, production of fruits and vegetables is expected to increase by 1.1 per cent during the year 2014-15 compared to an increase of 3.5 per cent in previous agriculture year.

Industry
Industry seems to provide some impetus for GDP expansion with estimated growth in the manufacturing, mining and quarrying, electricity, gas and water supply and construction estimated at 6.8 per cent, 2.3 per cent, 9.6 per cent and 4.5 per cent, respectively, during 2014-15 compared to growth of 5.3 per cent, 5.4 per cent, 4.8 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively, in 2013-14.

Manufacturing in the private corporate sector during April-Dec 2014 grew at 8.0 per cent.
Based on the latest estimates available on the index of industrial production (IIP), mining, manufacturing and electricity sectors recorded growth rates of 2.5 per cent, 1.1 per cent and 10.7 per cent, respectively during April-November 2014-15, compared to the growth rates of (-) 2.1 per cent, (-) 0.4 per cent and 5.4 per cent, respectively, during April-November 2013-14.

The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement production and steel consumption recorded growth rates of 7.9 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively, during April-December 2014-15 compared to the corresponding growth rates of 3.7 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively, during April-December 2013.

Services
In the service sector the estimated growth in GVA for trade, hotels, transport and communication and services related to broadcasting during 2014-15 is placed at 8.4 per cent against a growth of 11.1 per cent in the previous year. This is attributed to a decline of 5.7 per cent in the sales of commercial vehicles and the reduced rate of growth in sales tax collection at 13.9 per cent during April-December 2014 compared to 19 per cent in 2013-14. Cargo handled at major sea ports increased by 5.0 per cent during April-December 2014-15 compared to 1.9 per cent during April-December 2013-14 while passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation increased by 10.6 per cent and 8.1 per cent, respectively, during April-November 2014-15 compared to 7.8 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively, during April-November 2013-14.

Growth in the financial, real estate and professional services sector is expected to be around 13.7 per cent during 2014-15 compared to 7.9 per cent in 2013-14. Aggregate deposits of banks grew 11.5 per cent while aggregate credit expanded 10.5 per cent as of December 2014, compared to 15.9 per cent and 14.5 per cent, respectively, as of December 2013.

Private corporate sector recorded growth of 32 per cent in the real estate and professional services during April-December 2014-15.

GDP at current prices in the year 2014-15 is likely to attain a level of Rs126,54,000 crore, showing a growth rate of 11.5 per cent over the year 2013-14 of Rs113,45,000 crore (first revised estimate with the growth rate of 13.6 per cent).

The nominal net national income (NNI), also known as national income (at current prices) is likely to be Rs112,18,000 crore during 2014-15 against Rs100,56,000 crore for the 2013-14 financial year. In terms of growth rates, national income recorded a growth rate of 11.5 per cent in 2014-15 against the previous year's growth rate of 13.7 per cent.

Per capita net national income during 2014-15 is estimated to be Rs88,538, showing a rise of 10.1 per cent compared to Rs80,388 during 2013-14 with a growth rate of 12.3 per cent.

Growth Rates  of GDP

Constant prices  (2011-12)
Current prices
Annual 2014-15(Advance)
7.4
11.5
Q12014-15(April-June)
6.5
12.8
Q2 2014-15(July-Sep)
8.2
12.8
Q3 2014-15(Oct-Dec)
7.5
9.0

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