Aug. 31 2005

Dear visitor,
 
As a professional in energy-matters, you will be aware of the rapidly changing global energy situation. The global energy-demand keeps rising, whilst the supply can hardly keep up. The energy security of the future is in danger. With current demand there is enough conventional oil for about 30 years, but with demand rising with an expected 40-50 % in the coming 15-20 years, this becomes much shorter. And then we will be in a situation of very high demand and very little oil left over.
 
The expected reserves still to be found (probable, possible) have shown to be overstated in many cases. Heavy oil, tar-sand and shale oil are available in abundance, but the net-energy of these sources is limited and the side-effects in water-usage, emissions and environmental degradation and destructions are quite extreme. Uranium and nuclear energy is only a limited option because of security and other concerns.

Renewables (wind-, solar- and geothermal energies and bio-fuels) have a great future, but are in no way sufficient to replace the current conventional sources.
 
So it seems we have a problem and that fundamental solutions will be needed to respond to a situation which humanity has never faced before. And as it looks like now, there is little time left and it might well be that we run out of oil and resources before we have properly developed alternative infrastructures that will cater for the energy-needs of the future.
 
And the thing is: no-one likes to talk about it. It is easier to do it away as doomsday-thinking than to look at it in a serious way, because it will of course change the fundaments of our societies. All this will need serious thinking that goes beyond politics, and in many cases, also beyond current economic thinking.
 
How do the rich and energy-intensive economies (esp. US, Europe) deal with what is coming towards us? What will be the response of the emerging economies to the changing energy situation? Well over 2 billion people are slowly getting access to energy and economic development, increasing demand in the future substantially. (East and South-east Asia, Latin America and parts of Africa)
 
Just producing more oil won’t do it. Although it might be technically possible to cater for at least part of the future demand, emissions will rise with increasing production and usage. And the climate issue is already getting serious all over the world, from super-storms to extreme droughts to floodings to melting glaciers and ice-caps.
 
Because oil and gas have become global commodities, a future supply-crunch will be a global affair. And because climate-effects do not know geographic borders, responsible behaviour will also be needed on a global scale.
 
We have had access to cheap energy for the last 150 years and our societies and our way of thinking are built on it. We are now looking at a period in which the rest of the remaining resources will be used up at an increasing speed. It took about 150 years for the first trillion barrels of oil to be produced and ‘used’, it is expected that the next trillion barrels will only take 30-35 years. Currently, with a global usage of about 85 million barrels per day, we burn 1 billion barrels every 11,5 days. Soon, when demand will be 120 million barrels per day in about 15 years, it will only take a bit more than 8 days for every billion barrels of oil. In no way is this sustainable. But what are the alternatives?
 
Following the international energy developments now for over 20 years, of which the last 11 years as founder, director and editor of Alexander’s Gas & Oil Connections (www.gasandoil.com), and seeing what is coming, Alexander Wostmann took the initiative last year, for the very successful Global Peak Oil Gathering (www.gasandoil.com/peakoil, see also the reflections). Here it became clear that peak oil, however real, was part of a much bigger picture, which has to do with how humanity will respond to the dwindling finite resources and whether this way will be sustainable for man and planet. (If we are not sustainable for the planet, well….).

Since the Peak Oil Gathering last year, much has changed and the realisation of the resources not being infinite is starting to find its way into societies, worldwide. The thinking about what it all could mean is advancing (sometimes with very drastic and realistic pre-views) and it seems, what we need to do now is to think our way towards what needs to be done to respond to the fundamental energy- and resource questions. In a non-political, neutral way.
 
For this year therefore, we will organise the Future Energy Policy (www.gasandoil.com/fep) (Oct. 10 - 12) where in the first two days we will first update everyone on the issues of global reserves of oil, gas, alternatives and renewables, the demand-supply questions, depletion and the global climate developments. A special, guided workshop will then bring things together and connect up what we have heard.
 
On day three we will then work towards the future: What does it now say to do? 
What new templates do we need for the future?
 
The speakers and participants will be in a 3 day continuous process, aimed at increasing intelligence and perception, with the aim to work to a level of perception that we are able to find a ‘best way forward’ in this unavoidable situation.
 
The reason for my writing is therefore two-fold: I want to encourage global discussion about this issue, because it is unavoidable, and at the same time I want to gather as many minds as possible, from as many countries as possible, to take part in the Future Energy Policy (www.gasandoil.com/fep ).
Together, we are much more intelligent than on our own.
 
Kind regards,
 
Alexander Wostmann
 
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Have a look at our coming conference:
The Future Energy Policy (www.gasandoil.com/fep)
October 10, 11 and 12 in Koblenz, Germany

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