Global Peak Oil Gathering, Oct. 19, 20 2004, Koblenz, Germany

Opening speech Alexander Wostmann

A warm welcome to you all.

It is a special sight to see you all, coming from different corners of the world, to speak about this important subject. It is like a dream come true.

Let me introduce myself: My name is Alexander Wöstmann, founder of Alexander's Gas & Oil Connections. I started this service as a 12 page high density newsletter in 1995 and transferred it to the Internet in 1996. It was a new time and I remember how excited we were when it became clear we had 35 visitors a day, and it was enormous to have about 250 visitors a week. Since then, things have grown: we now have sometimes 5000 visitors a day. And I believe it will go this way with this Gathering, albeit different.

The story of this Gathering starts at the beginning of this year, when I saw a strong increase in the amount of stories in the world-press about peak oil. It was then that I decided to organise this Gathering and Think-tank. Shortly after, I first met Colin Campbell at the ASPO-meeting in Berlin, who supported the idea and the way of it and then Mr. Gerald Ducet from the World Energy Council in Bonn. It was with his kind encouragement that Mr. Jean Marie Bourdaire is now also here.

So the first signs were very positive.

As things go, after the good things often the resistances occur. But we pushed on because this is a very important subject. And I wanted to create a circumstance in which a collective intelligence could have an attempt at this. The matter is much more vast and more complex as generally is admitted to and it is clear that sloganisms, or denial, do not work.

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Let us look at the facts:

• The prices are higher then since a long time,
• Supply is stretched quite to the limit,
• There is much discussion and unclarity about the resources,
• Demand is growing rapidly, soon we will need every ten days 1 billion barrel of oil,
• The climate it is not served very well by all the hydrocarbons that are burned; the first signs seem to indicate tough times ahead,
• There is a discussion about the possibilities of peak oil, but the ones are calling the others 'alarmists' and the others call these people 'flat earth economists'. This is not a very effective way of discussing such an important subject,
• and then there are also the speculative aspects…

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So my reasons for doing this Gathering lie in the wish to create a circumstance in which individual and collective intelligence can be used to address this subject. And this in such a way that everyone feels free to speak and to speak his or her mind.

This is why I suggest to put that which will be said during the Gathering under the so-called Chatham House rules. This means that, what will be said during the Gathering will not leave this room. This, to give everyone maximum freedom.

Another reason for this Gathering is, that I want to try to bring more clarity in the matter and that we collectively try to get a grip on the realities of the situation.

It seems to me that if we continue as we do now, it looks like disasters, wars and heavy climatic change our pre-programmed. So, another reason for this Gathering is to see whether we can change things early enough to prevent disaster.

And so there are many reasons for doing this Gathering. In many ways I saw the need for a meeting like this, in which we can talk openly and freely about the future of our energy situation.

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If we then look at some of the principles involved for this Gathering, then one of the principles that I wants to govern this here is the "No-one actually knows" principle. Most of what we are talking about is underground and no-one has the complete picture, so we are all seeking for better intelligence.

We might also look at what principles and what balances are currently at play in the market. Not only the principles of supply and demand, but what other principles are at play?

In looking at the issue of peak oil and how to respond to it, human intelligence has not done on a good job, yet. So we might have a look at how to approach the subject in a completely different way is. Mr Frenkel will tell you more about this.

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In this picture belongs also a vision and this vision is that it becomes possible to approach this subject as a whole. It is not possible to separate out demand from supply or from reserves or even from the climate. So we will try to go into the multiple aspects of this issue.

By now you may have discovered that this is a special opportunity to learn, to do and to honestly discuss.

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The proposition of this Gathering is that collectively we get a better intelligence then we had before.

The propositions for this conference are

• to increase knowledge,
• to improve perception with and about this knowledge,
• to come to a clarity where we must not go,
• to come to the right kind of questions facing the whole world and specifically the industries in such a way that it brings us closer to new futuristic concepts and not old and recycled once,
• to be very creative about all the above.

I hope you have a useful time here, an enjoyable time, with much humour, some humility and a lot of humanity.

Rest me to thank the Petroleum Federation of India for their support and for the nice present they brought for all participants. You find these on your tables.

Let me introduce the team:

The 3 ladies of the core team are Ingrid Stocksiefen, Rosemary Donovan and Britta Singer who are the stability and support and take care of the ecology and everything around that.

Josina van Schaik is helping (and an expert unseen ecology reader)

Peter Moldovany is the technician, musician and also a professional in massage.

And then there is of course Mr. Boaz Frenkel, our specialist from Israel. He will introduce to you the way and the method of the 5 Intelligences.

I wish you a good time at the Gathering.

Alexander Wöstmann
19-10-04 Koblenz, Germany